It is spring 2029. With the economy in the doldrums for five years, schools and the NHS almost shut-down by continual strikes, gilt yields pushing 7½%, and the resignation of the second chancellor in 11 months, Prime Minister Keir Starmer runs out of road and calls a snap general election a few months early. After a short, bad-tempered campaigning period, the Renewal Party wins a landslide victory and a substantial absolute majority in parliament. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are each reduced to less than 20% of the seats they held in 2024. The rump Conservative party is wiped-out, with most of it having already been absorbed by Renewal’s predecessor in 2027. The Greens lose their last remaining seat. The SNP narrowly hang-on in Scotland after a coordinated assault by Renewal and Alba.
On the day after the election, Friday, the leader of Renewal goes to the Palace and then to Downing Street. The usual speech outside no. 10 is cancelled due to continued heavy rain and flooding across London and the surrounding areas.
The new cabinet is all male, almost all white and middle-aged, and with one exception entirely composed of Renewal-aligned business leaders. Within hours, media sources begin to report that the government has an extensive, detailed and pre-planned agenda for what is described by sources as “Radical National Renewal and Reform”.
That evening the BBC decides to go down fighting and publishes a leaked draft version of the plan. All state education activities are to be privatised, with eligible parents being allocated vouchers to purchase education services from any private-sector provider. Government arts, cultural, and sporting funding is to be redirected to road building. All social security benefits, with the exception of pensions, will be ended. The NHS is to be absorbed into, and operated by, a US healthcare corporation, with the government retaining a 10% share. Devolution will come to an end, with the Scotland Act 1998, the Government of Wales Act 1998, and the Northern Ireland Act 1998 scheduled to be repealed early in the next parliamentary term. The UK is to announce its withdrawal from what remains of NATO and will apply to join the North America / Greater Russia Security Alliance as a junior partner along with Belarus. The BBC and Channel Four will be sold to a joint venture between three unnamed media corporations.
The proposals cause widespread outrage. The government declines to comment formally, but Renewal publish multi-page adverts in national newspapers evoking “the Dunkirk Spirit” and “national renewal”. Parliament fails to elect a speaker and sittings are temporarily suspended. The share prices of education, healthcare, and defence businesses owned by members of the cabinet rise.
The next day, Saturday, US Vice President Musk is observed by journalists emerging from a London hotel – the first time he has been seen in public since mid-2027, and having apparently arrived unannounced on a US military flight into RAF Mildenhall the previous day. With him are high-level personnel from the shadowy US$DOGE Corporation, carrying what appear to be laptops and portable satellite ground stations. The Guardian publishes an email apparently sent to Civil servants at the Bank of England, the Treasury, the Home Office, and the Ministry of Defence instructing them to stay at home on Monday and await further instructions. Traffic routes through the Whitehall government district are temporarily closed. In the afternoon the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police unexpectedly resigns after less than a year in-post, and the nephew of the new Home Secretary is appointed in her place.
On Monday, almost all civil servants arriving for work are sent home for the rest of the week and told to expect an email regarding the future of their jobs. Prince Harry, the young King George’s regent, announces that a joint state visit by President Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Prime Minister Orban will take place at the end of April. President Trump, by now four years into his extended second presidential term and reportedly too infirm to travel beyond his compound, offers to host the event at his golf course and estate in Aberdeenshire; with security provided by US military contractors and an aircraft carrier anchored offshore.
In early April most of the country experiences unexpected heavy snow and subzero temperatures. After a harsh winter caused by the collapse of Atlantic ocean currents the previous year, rail and road travel is again extensively disrupted. Manchester, Bristol and Leeds experience multi-day power cuts and, along with other small towns in England, localised breakdowns of public order and sporadic looting of shops. There are rumours of damage to under-sea electricity interconnector cables and internet links in the vicinity of the Russian Baltic Fleet returning to the victory fleet review in the Black Sea. Parliament, finally sitting for the first time since before the election, begins work on the new government’s legislative programme. Broadcast cameras and microphones in the commons chamber are switched off without explanation.
On 11th May the Times, in an exclusive, reports that in mid-April a Russian oil tanker registered in Barbados caused extensive damage to the Hornsea wind farm off the east coast of England – having apparently suffered engine failure and drifted for several days in the vicinity of the turbines. The whereabouts of the ship is said to be unknown. On the 14th May the government instructs Ofcom to suspend the newspaper publishing operations of News UK, the Guardian Media Group, and Mirror Group Newspapers. Ofcom refuses, citing lack of jurisdiction, and its chief executive resigns. The government announces its intent to legislate to reinstate mandatory newspaper publisher registration under the newly recreated office of Postmaster General. The Guardian reveals that its website has been operating from servers located in the Irish Republic since late March. Three days later there are simultaneous explosions in Dublin and the French end of the Channel Tunnel, killing six people. The home secretary announces that the tunnel will be temporarily closed, and the land and sea border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be restricted to two crossing-points and the single, state-owned ferry service.
As the country edges into June and a weary population starts to anticipate the return of warmer weather, the economic situation remains grim. Unemployment is said to be at almost 4 million, although official statistics are only rarely published, and without employment opportunities or state benefits, large areas of the country have largely reverted to barter-based economies. Farmers report widespread theft of crops and livestock. The Prime Minister, in a TV address, attempts to rally the nation and promises a large increases in the number of officers employed by the National Police Service and the use of military personnel if necessary. Off-shore websites report complaints by the Prime Mister’s office that the broadcast was seen by only 1.9 million people. Jaguar Land Rover and Nissan UK both announce the closure of their car assembly plants in the UK due to “market conditions”. A fire in an urban tent city in Newcastle kills at least 56 people and several adjacent buildings are so badly damaged that they require demolition.
The summer period sees hot temperatures but is marred by extensive rain. Travel agents report low bookings for foreign holidays, while domestic campsites are swamped by families and groups desperate for respite from life in the cities. For those without access to transport “urban wild camping” becomes popular, driven by social media influencers and the large section of the population that are now living in precarity.
After two weeks when the daytime temperature rarely drops below 30°C, rioting breaks out in numerous towns and cities when it is announced that the EU’s Eurocontrol agency is denying permission to cross EU airspace for deportation flights from the UK. Hospitals, already overwhelmed by heat-related casualties, are unable to treat the dead and injured. The organisers of the Glastonbury festival announce its cancellation with less than 24 hours notice due to security concerns. Over 80,000 festival-goers already on the site refuse to leave and troops, including the Parachute Regiment, are deployed to remove them. The Home Secretary announces his resignation during a commons debate, then reverses his decision two days later. President Trump announces the failure of negotiations to agree a post-brexit trade agreement with the UK. Almost immediately, Moody’s downgrades the UK’s sovereign debt rating to from A3 to B1, and in the same week HSBC announces the relocation of its its global headquarters from London to Frankfurt.
Moving into the autumn, with continuing disruption to travel and agriculture due to the summer rainy season, the population digs in for the winter. The National Broadcasting Service announces a limited schedule of classic BBC and ITV programming from the 1970s and 80s. For most of the country power-cuts now occur on a rota basis, and the theft of generators, rooftop solar cells, and electric vehicle batteries is widespread. Unseasonably early snow and storms in October bring much of the country to a standstill. With days shortening and the temperature dropping, an uncertain and distrustful population awaits the winter.
By Andrew Johnson.
Manchester, February 2025.
Copyright © Andrew Johnson 2025, all rights reserved.
The author does not endorse the fictional events described above.